Microsoft Stock Today: October 26, 2026 Price, Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview, $50 Billion AI Bet and the 2026 Forecast

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) trades at approximately $512 per share on Monday, October 26, 2026, up 18.4% year to date and within 4% of its all-time high of $533 set in September, as investors position ahead of the company's fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, after the market close. The consensus analyst price target sits at $601, implying roughly 17% upside, but the debate has narrowed to one number: whether Azure can sustain 30%+ growth while Microsoft spends a record $50 billion on AI infrastructure in fiscal 2027.

What is Microsoft's stock price today, October 26, 2026?

Microsoft's stock is quoted at $512.40 in premarket trading on October 26, 2026, with a market capitalization of $3.81 trillion, a trailing twelve-month P/E of 34.2, and a forward P/E of 28.6 based on fiscal 2027 consensus EPS of $17.90. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $388.10 to $533.20, and the current dividend yield is 0.68% on an annualized payout of $3.48 per share, following the September 2026 hike from $3.32.

When does Microsoft report Q1 FY2027 earnings and what is expected?

Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 2027 results on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 4:05 p.m. ET, with the earnings call at 5:30 p.m. ET. Consensus expects revenue of $79.4 billion (up 15.8% year over year) and EPS of $4.12 (up 13.5%), according to LSEG data compiled by Morningstar. The options market is pricing an implied move of 4.6% for the session, roughly in line with the 4.9% average post-earnings move over the last eight quarters.

The three numbers that matter most: Azure and cloud revenue growth (consensus 31.2%), Microsoft Cloud gross margin (consensus 68.4%, down 180 basis points year over year on AI depreciation), and capital expenditures including finance leases (consensus $34.8 billion for the quarter, annualizing above $130 billion).

Can Microsoft's $50 billion AI gamble justify the valuation?

Microsoft has guided fiscal 2027 capital expenditures to approximately $50 billion in incremental AI and data center spending, on top of the $88 billion spent in fiscal 2026, and the bull case rests on Azure converting that spend into revenue at a 1.4x to 1.6x return within four quarters. According to 24/7 Wall St.'s October 24 analysis, the market is now demanding proof that Azure growth can accelerate rather than merely hold, because depreciation from the AI buildout is compressing cloud gross margins by nearly two percentage points per year.

The counterargument, articulated in Morningstar's October 25 note, is that Microsoft's fair value estimate of $565 already discounts 32% Azure growth through fiscal 2028, leaving limited margin of safety at $512. Morningstar rates the stock 3 stars (fairly valued), not a buy.

The question is no longer whether AI demand exists. It is whether Microsoft can monetize $138 billion of cumulative AI capex before depreciation and power costs overwhelm the operating leverage that made MSFT a compounder for two decades.

What do analysts say about Microsoft's price target and forecast?

The consensus price target on Microsoft is $601, with 44 of 54 covering analysts rating the stock a Buy or Overweight, 9 Hold, and 1 Sell, according to TipRanks data as of October 25, 2026. The highest target is $675 (Wedbush, Dan Ives, reiterated October 23), and the lowest is $475 (Barclays, downgraded September 30 on capex concerns).

What is the Motley Fool's buy price for Microsoft stock?

The Motley Fool's October 25, 2026 analysis argues that Microsoft becomes an attractive buy below $480, roughly 28x forward earnings, which represents a 6.3% discount to the current $512.40 price. The thesis is that at 28x forward EPS, investors are paying a market-multiple premium of only 12% for a business growing EPS at a mid-teens rate with $94 billion in annual operating cash flow.

For context, Microsoft has not traded below 28x forward earnings since April 2025, when tariff-driven volatility briefly pushed the multiple to 26.4x. The stock's five-year median forward P/E is 31.2x.

How does Microsoft's dividend compare and is it safe?

Microsoft pays a $3.48 annual dividend yielding 0.68%, the lowest among the Magnificent Seven except Nvidia, but the payout consumes only 19.4% of fiscal 2027 consensus EPS, making it among the safest large-cap tech dividends. Microsoft has raised the dividend for 15 consecutive years, most recently by 4.8% in September 2026, and has repurchased $22.1 billion of stock over the trailing twelve months.

Income investors should note that Microsoft is not a yield play. The total shareholder yield (dividends plus net buybacks) is approximately 1.3%, well below the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.02% recorded on October 23, 2026, per MarketWatch.

What are the key risks to Microsoft stock in 2026?

The three principal risks are AI capex depreciation, antitrust exposure in Europe, and the concentration of Azure growth in a small number of AI-native customers. According to Microsoft's FY2026 10-K, the top 10 Azure customers accounted for approximately 24% of commercial cloud revenue, up from 18% in FY2024, a concentration that magnifies the risk of any single customer slowdown.

• Capex risk: $138 billion of cumulative AI spend through FY2027 requires roughly $190 billion of incremental cloud revenue by FY2029 to earn its cost of capital.
• Regulatory risk: The European Commission's cloud licensing investigation, opened in 2025, could force changes to Azure bundling practices with an estimated $4 billion to $6 billion annual revenue impact.
• Competitive risk: AWS and Google Cloud have both accelerated AI workloads, and Google's Gemini enterprise wins in Q3 2026 suggest share gains in the model-as-a-service layer.

What is the Microsoft stock forecast for the next 12 months?

The 12-month consensus forecast for Microsoft is $601, a 17.3% return from $512.40, with a bull case of $675 (31.7% upside) if Azure accelerates above 33% and a bear case of $440 (14.1% downside) if capex guidance rises again without matching revenue. The stock's beta of 0.92 and its 22.4% weighting in the S&P 500 information technology sector make it a core holding for diversified portfolios regardless of the near-term earnings outcome.

Investors seeking context on the broader AI trade should review our coverage of the Nvidia AI trade reality check and the October 23 Treasury yield move, both of which directly affect Microsoft's valuation multiple.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Microsoft's stock price today?

Microsoft trades at $512.40 in premarket trading on October 26, 2026, down 1.2% from Friday's close of $518.60.

When is Microsoft's next earnings date?

Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, after the market close, with the call at 5:30 p.m. ET.

What is Microsoft's dividend?

Microsoft pays $3.48 per share annually, a 0.68% yield, following a 4.8% raise in September 2026.

Is Microsoft stock a buy right now?

Analysts are split: the consensus target of $601 implies 17% upside, but Morningstar rates it fairly valued at $565 and The Motley Fool would buy below $480.

What is Microsoft's price target?

The consensus 12-month price target is $601, with a range from $475 (Barclays) to $675 (Wedbush).